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jsca72

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 25, 2013
Messages
152
Location
Central Coast, California
Saw this article on yahoo.com the other day. I'm very disappointed to see #8 & #14 on the list. I don't feel they were ever given a chance. Before I even knew about the Spark EV, I had tried to get a FitEV. The salesperson wouldn't even take my name and number because he knew he couldn't get one for me. (This was after the lease price dropped.) RAV4 EVs never even made it to our area.

I love my Spark and am so glad that is the EV I have ended up with, but I don't want to see any EVs being dropped from any carmakers line-ups.

https://autos.yahoo.com/photos/deat...won-t-be-back-next-year-1406322573-slideshow/
 
jsca72 said:
Saw this article on yahoo.com the other day. I'm very disappointed to see #8 & #14 on the list. I don't feel they were ever given a chance. Before I even knew about the Spark EV, I had tried to get a FitEV. The salesperson wouldn't even take my name and number because he knew he couldn't get one for me. (This was after the lease price dropped.) RAV4 EVs never even made it to our area.

I love my Spark and am so glad that is the EV I have ended up with, but I don't want to see any EVs being dropped from any carmakers line-ups.

Both the Rav4 EV and Honda Fit EV were specifically intended for only model years 2012 - 2014 California Air Resources Board - Zero Emission Vehicle (CARB-ZEV) compliance.

Those companies successfully lobbied CARB to get enhanced credits for hydrogen cars, therefore for model years 2015 - 2017, and probably all the way to 2025, that's what they will do.

I don't count GM out of the woods on hydrogen. The change to 300% more credit for a hydrogen ZEV over a battery one was only made recently, and hydrogen is also now exempt from the "traveling provision", which means they can sell hydrogen cars in only California. But, for now, it appears GM is content to lower costs on the Spark EV (with a smaller battery) for at least model years 2015 - 2017.

For 2018, things will get more interesting because GM will have to either sell the Spark EV in all CARB-ZEV states (see below) or sell a hydrogen car in California only (and probably drop the Spark EV).



CARB-ZEV "coalition" states - California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont
 
jsca72 said:
Saw this article on yahoo.com the other day. I'm very disappointed to see #8 & #14 on the list. I don't feel they were ever given a chance. Before I even knew about the Spark EV, I had tried to get a FitEV. The salesperson wouldn't even take my name and number because he knew he couldn't get one for me. (This was after the lease price dropped.) RAV4 EVs never even made it to our area.

I love my Spark and am so glad that is the EV I have ended up with, but I don't want to see any EVs being dropped from any carmakers line-ups.

https://autos.yahoo.com/photos/deat...won-t-be-back-next-year-1406322573-slideshow/

Tesla is the variable here. With Tesla leading the way in EVs and planning to bring out new models that will further upset regular vehicle sales in lower price ranges that are more available to the masses, the automakers are not going to sit on the sidelines idly and wait to see what happens. Tesla had a decent impact on the luxury vehicle sales market so a lower priced EV from them will definitely affect the market and hydrogen powered vehicles neither perform as well nor are as efficient as EVs.

Hydrogen vehicles are clearly a push from behind the scenes by the O&G industry and represented to the mass public by the auto industry.

Toyota has little to no skin in the EV game. Neither does Honda. GM does. It's not likely GM will drop its EV product. It can definitely do more but I think it will acquire the tech before it comes up with its own.
 
TonyWilliams said:
The change to 300% more credit for a hydrogen ZEV over a battery one...
Wait, WHAT?! I'd like to hear the lawmakers' explanation for that! It doesn't make any physical sense at all, between zero local emissions being, you know, zero (so each should get the same credit,) and the fact that it takes more energy to make hydrogen than to charge a battery (so an H2 car should get _less_ of a credit than a battery one, if they want to split hairs.)
 
Pegasus said:
TonyWilliams said:
The change to 300% more credit for a hydrogen ZEV over a battery one...
Wait, WHAT?! I'd like to hear the lawmakers' explanation for that! It doesn't make any physical sense at all, between zero local emissions being, you know, zero (so each should get the same credit,) and the fact that it takes more energy to make hydrogen than to charge a battery (so an H2 car should get _less_ of a credit than a battery one, if they want to split hairs.)


Your reaction is why I hammer this stuff home for folks in the EV game... Here's an older chart that has been revised slightly (they took away "fast refueling" for battery swapping):

Type V - 300+ miles range "hydrogen" - Credit per vehicle: 9 (2015-2017 only)
Type V - 300+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 7
Type IV - 200+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 5
Type III - 100+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 4
Type III - 200+ miles range -------------- Credit per vehicle: 4
Type II - 100+ miles range --------------- Credit per vehicle: 3
Type I.5 - 75-100 miles range ----------- Credit per vehicle: 2.5
Type I - 50-75 miles range --------------- Credit per vehicle: 2

After 2017, the credits for Type III, IV and V drop to 3

*********

All the battery compliance cars, like the GM Spark EV, are 3 credits each. The Tesla Model S did get 7 credits, and now gets 4 (I think).

Hydrogen will generally always get 9, as I'm absolutely confident that the 9 credits will be extended for many years while cost effective hydrogen is "just around the corner".

And that singular best reason for hydrogen? They get to sell the cars only in California, and nowhere else.
 
Tony, is the range listed in the table EPA range or is this calculated in some other way?

Does selling a Spark EV give Chevrolet 3 credits or 2.5?
 
Pegasus said:
TonyWilliams said:
The change to 300% more credit for a hydrogen ZEV over a battery one...
Wait, WHAT?! I'd like to hear the lawmakers' explanation for that! It doesn't make any physical sense at all, between zero local emissions being, you know, zero (so each should get the same credit,) and the fact that it takes more energy to make hydrogen than to charge a battery (so an H2 car should get _less_ of a credit than a battery one, if they want to split hairs.)


It's a tactic they use nothing more. It doesn't mean EV's will go away. As I said, this is O&G handiwork along with their auto maker shills. This type of stuff happens all the time in a variety of industries...this is no different but the EV world has gained far more traction than before. It's rather different now.
 
Chocula said:
Tony, is the range listed in the table EPA range or is this calculated in some other way?

Does selling a Spark EV give Chevrolet 3 credits or 2.5?

First, understand that the credits are issued by California ARB, not EPA (USA federal government).

All the 80-90 mile range EPA cars have been tested on the EPA 5 cycle test starting in 2012, however the LEAF came out in 2011 with "100 mile" range... based on the previous LA4 "city cycle" testing. The way the 2011 LEAF ended up with 73 EPA miles was an arbitrary 30% downgrade by EPA.

The 2012 LEAF got 75 miles, based on an average 66 miles range at 80% charge and 84 miles at 100% charge. So, what did they do for 2014? Eliminate the 80% charge, to get 84 miles.

They tried doing the "averaging thing" to Tesla, who wisely made a sliding scale of max charge, from 50% to 100%. Only one car gets an average EPA today; the Toyota Rav4 EV, with 92 and 113 miles to average 103 EPA rating. Toyota obviously will not make any changes to the car to get a higher EPA value, and actually will only produce about 300 more cars before moving on to solely hydrogen compliance cars with Honda and Hyundai.

That a whole lotta mumbling to say, yes, all the current battery compliance cars get 3 credits each from CARB, including the Spark EV. But you can get a feel for the nuances behind the numbers.
 
nozferatu said:
Pegasus said:
TonyWilliams said:
The change to 300% more credit for a hydrogen ZEV over a battery one...
Wait, WHAT?! I'd like to hear the lawmakers' explanation for that! It doesn't make any physical sense at all, between zero local emissions being, you know, zero (so each should get the same credit,) and the fact that it takes more energy to make hydrogen than to charge a battery (so an H2 car should get _less_ of a credit than a battery one, if they want to split hairs.)


It's a tactic they use nothing more. It doesn't mean EV's will go away.

EV's have never "gone away"... they've been here since before oil burning cars, and before the first public USA gasoline station in 1913.

But, the 300% credit advantage does mean that Honda, Toyota and Hyundai absolutely won't be selling battery electric cars in the USA. The "tactic" for CARB is to incentivize hydrogen cars over battery electric ones (that Toyota calls only good for the "last mile" solution to travel).

The state has also committed about $100 million to build state taxpayer funded hydrogen refueling facilities (see attached email that I got yesterday). You can guess how much they will spend on a California statewide fast charging network.

Anybody who thinks GM and German car makers aren't looking at these latest developments in hydrogen as a potentially cheaper method to comply with CARB is fooling themselves. That doesn't mean that's what will happen (beyond the obvious Toyota, Honda and Hyundai), but when 2018 rolls around, the screws get much tighter for CARB-ZEV compliance. We will see which way the pressure squeezes.


News Release

For Immediate Release
July 31, 2014

Media Contacts:
Teresa Schilling, Energy Commission, (916) 654-4989
Dave Clegern, Air Resources Board, (916) 322-2990
Brook Taylor, GO-Biz, (916) 322-0667


California Agencies Roll Out Red Carpet for Hydrogen Electric Vehicles

State partnerships accelerate the transition to zero-emission vehicles


Sacramento - California state agencies are collaborating on a range of initiatives to support the goal of 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2025. [http://opr.ca.gov/docs/Governor's_Office_ZEV_Action_Plan_(02-13).pdf]

Last week, the California Energy Commission [http://www.energy.ca.gov] carried out one of these initiatives, voting to use nearly $50 million to put in place 28 new, public hydrogen refueling stations and one mobile refueler by the end of 2015. The move was one of several actions designed to help achieve a key goal of the state's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) plan: to accelerate construction of hydrogen refueling infrastructure across the state.

"California is rolling out the carpet for Californians who choose these ultra-clean hydrogen powered electric cars and for the companies that make them," said Air Resources Board Chairman Mary D. Nichols. [http://www.arb.ca.gov/homepage.htm] "These private-public partnerships to build dozens of hydrogen fueling stations set the stage for hydrogen fuel cell electric cars to become commonplace on our streets and provide a new generation of long-range zero-emission vehicles for California consumers."

"Making the transition to cleaner, lower polluting near-zero and zero-emission vehicles is a critical component to addressing California's clean air and climate challenges. The transportation sector accounts for about 40 percent of the state's greenhouse gas emissions," said Commissioner Janea A. Scott, the Energy Commission's lead commissioner on transportation. "We are pleased to be part of this state collaboration and will continue to work diligently on standing up hydrogen fuel cells and other electric vehicle technologies."
 
We know EV's have never gone away. We know when they started. We've had batteries for eons...doesn't mean they were marketed properly and used for the right reasons. That's not the point.

Honda and Toyota will do what they must to keep the fuel burners going (as will all companies) but the tides of change are coming whether they like it or not. Now that a solid EV product is available and being mass marketed, it's a different story.

The State has to keep all sides happy so that the idiots in office can get re-elected and keep their cushy jobs. They will cater to both EV and fuel cell sides because that's what they must do.

Tesla has helped by opening up patents and also by shortly releasing it's smaller EV versions that I'm sure many many people who now but Lexus IS, 3 Series, and C-class Benzes will definitely have second thoughts about. Anyone who thinks the automakers are going to sit idly by while Tesla and other makers (who may start up from this spur of open tech) gain market share is fooling themselves as well.

There are many many issues with fuel cell vehicles that still need some serious R&D to sort out. EV's are well ahead of that curve.
 
nozferatu said:
Now that a solid EV product is available and being mass marketed, it's a different story.

We are quite a distance from "mass marketed" for EV's. Only three EV's are marketed around the world; Nissan LEAF (150,000 sold), Tesla Model S (40,000 sold) and. Mitsubishi iMiev and variants (30,000 sold). While those might sound like big numbers to some, those small numbers would shut down a true mass market car.

While I don't believe hydrogen cars will ever get out of California, that doesn't mean auto makers won't go to hydrogen for the regulatory advantages. It's a business decision that has nothing to do with whether battery electric cars are good or bad.

GM is one of the poster children for doing the absolutely minimum for CARB-ZEV regulatory compliance with the Spark EV. So is Toyota and Honda, and we already know which direction they will go.

The rumors of GM making a "moon shot" 200 mile EV based on an economy car platform can still fill the CARB-ZEV requirements, but at a huge disadvantage over a "100 mile" car. If they are truly going to compete against a 150 mile LEAF, or a 200 mile Tesla Model 3 with free nationwide Supercharger, good luck !!!! I'd love to see the competition.

But, that still doesn't stop GM from slipping off to hydrogen with their big brothers between 2018 and 2025.
 
TonyWilliams said:
nozferatu said:
Now that a solid EV product is available and being mass marketed, it's a different story.

We are quite a distance from "mass marketed" for EV's. Only three EV's are marketed around the world; Nissan LEAF (150,000 sold), Tesla Model S (40,000 sold) and. Mitsubishi iMiev and variants (30,000 sold). While those might sound like big numbers to some, those small numbers would shut down a true mass market car.

While I don't believe hydrogen cars will ever get out of California, that doesn't mean auto makers won't go to hydrogen for the regulatory advantages. It's a business decision that has nothing to do with whether battery electric cars are good or bad.

GM is one of the poster children for doing the absolutely minimum for CARB-ZEV regulatory compliance with the Spark EV. So is Toyota and Honda, and we already know which direction they will go.

The rumors of GM making a "moon shot" 200 mile EV based on an economy car platform can still fill the CARB-ZEV requirements, but at a huge disadvantage over a "100 mile" car. If they are truly going to compete against a 150 mile LEAF, or a 200 mile Tesla Model 3 with free nationwide Supercharger, good luck !!!! I'd love to see the competition.

But, that still doesn't stop GM from slipping off to hydrogen with their big brothers between 2018 and 2025.

Everything starts from zero...so "quite a distance" doesn't mean much when a new emerging technology and market is being introduced and growing.

GM is only one of ALL of the other manufacturers that are doing about the same amount of effort in the EV market with exception to Tesla.

EV momentum is to great at this point for any car manufacturer to just ignore. Most of them are just waiting to develop their own versions of EVs but no one wants to reinvent the wheel they can help it. Tesla's patents release is what they are waiting for and with that available, wasting time on hydrogen will become more clear as time goes on. The focus on hydrogen is simply to continue the IC side of the automotive tech..nothing more.
 
nozferatu said:
GM is only one of ALL of the other manufacturers that are doing about the same amount of effort in the EV market with exception to Tesla.

EV momentum is to great at this point for any car manufacturer to just ignore.

Toyota and Honda are "ignoring" that EV momentum and going to straight hydrogen for their CARB-ZEV compliance. You can bet that Mercedes will be right behind them in 2018. So will Ford. And I predict GM.

Nissan and Mitsubishi are two companies clearly not in the "ALL" the other manufacturers. Like Tesla, Mitsubishi is not required to build ANY electric vehicles, and Nissan builds and sells worldwide, just like the Tesla and Mitsubishi.

GM produces minimum regulatory quantities of EV's in regulatory states.
 
TonyWilliams said:
nozferatu said:
GM is only one of ALL of the other manufacturers that are doing about the same amount of effort in the EV market with exception to Tesla.

EV momentum is to great at this point for any car manufacturer to just ignore.

Toyota and Honda are "ignoring" that EV momentum and going to straight hydrogen for their CARB-ZEV compliance. You can bet that Mercedes will be right behind them in 2018. So will Ford. And I predict GM.

Nissan and Mitsubishi are two companies clearly not in the "ALL" the other manufacturers. Like Tesla, Mitsubishi is not required to build ANY electric vehicles, and Nissan builds and sells worldwide, just like the Tesla and Mitsubishi.

GM produces minimum regulatory quantities of EV's in regulatory states.

So let them...they are not the only game in town. EV sales are growing despite Toyota and Honda absence.

I won't bet on anything until it happens. The rest is moot.
 
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