EVs At LA Auto Show

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StevesWeb

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 7, 2014
Messages
147
Yesterday I drove downhill to a train station in Corona and took Metrolink to Union Station in LA, then switched to Metro to the LA Convention Center and this years auto show. Range anxiety and charger availability worries strike deep, but I also despise freeway traffic near LA.. I was hunting for EVs to look at, and saw a few. I took photos.

The EV that impressed me as most practical for families, while considering price, is the Kia Soul EV. The style and size of the vehicle, and its range are possibly more appealing to young families.

Of course I looked at the Spark EV and saw no difference I could detect from my 2014 model.

Mullen had EVs there, and they were making some pretty wild claims about mileage in a future model. I saw the Toyota (look we have an EV) hydrogen burner, a very unusual looking car. Because of the way Hydrogen is currently produced for cars I'm not a big fan. Nissan had their Leaf tucked away in a corner as if it embarrassed them. They were promoting the Juke, which burns fuel and has plastic trim as pretty as a Fiat 500e dashboard.

I saw a Mitsubishi I-MiEV for the first time, so now I finally do believe they exist. It's amazingly smaller than a Spark EV. I chatted with a few reps about their EV models, and talked them up to people looking at them, spreading EV propaganda at every chance.

I told a lady at the Buick display that I expected to see a majority of EVs if I'm still around in ten more years. She was skeptical. So it goes.
 
StevesWeb said:
I took photos.
...
Mullen had EVs there, and they were making some pretty wild claims about mileage in a future model. I saw the Toyota (look we have an EV) hydrogen burner, a very unusual looking car. Because of the way Hydrogen is currently produced for cars I'm not a big fan. Nissan had their Leaf tucked away in a corner as if it embarrassed them.
...
I saw a Mitsubishi I-MiEV for the first time, so now I finally do believe they exist. It's amazingly smaller than a Spark EV. I chatted with a few reps about their EV models, and talked them up to people looking at them, spreading EV propaganda at every chance.
Thanks for the pics! I'll have to take a look at them.

As for Mullen, well, the 700e is a resurrected Coda. I made a few posts at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=399652#p399652.

As for Toyota's FCEV, the Mirai... yeah. Looks rather ugly. :( I'm not a fan of FCEVs either. I posted this elsewhere on the Mirai.

2016 Toyota Mirai Priced At $57,500, With $499 Monthly Lease:
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095511_2016-toyota-mirai-priced-at-57500-with-499-monthly-lease (has a press release)

2016 Toyota Mirai starts at $57,500, lease for $499/month with free hydrogen fuel:
http://www.autoblog.com/2014/11/17/2016-toyota-mirai-starts-at-57-500-lease-for-499-month/

More pics and a video w/Akio Toyoda himself speaking at http://www.engadget.com/2014/11/17/toyota-mirai-hydrogen-network-us-northeast.

Interestingly, http://newsroom.toyota.co.jp/en/detail/mail/4198334
5. Large external power supply system

The Mirai comes with a power supply system with a large capacity of approximately 60 kWh14 and maximum power supply capability of 9 kW15 for use during power outages, such as those following natural disasters. When a power supply unit (sold separately) is connected, it converts the DC power from the CHAdeMO power socket located inside the trunk to AC power and can power a vehicle-to-home16 system or a vehicle-to-load system. Consumer electronics can also be connected directly and used from the interior accessory socket (AC 100 V, 1,500 W).
Nissan has supposedly sold a CHAdeMO V2H box in Japan: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2012/05/leafvsh-20120530.html.

Re: the Leaf display, yeah, I heard the same thing from others who went to the LA Auto Show. Very weird!

As for i-Miev, I've personally seen a few on the road here, but sightings are rare. I test drove one finally at http://www.altcarexpo.com/ in 2012. Since you're in So Cal, if they have cars you're interested in driving, do attend next year. I drove all the way down there from the Bay Area to attend.
StevesWeb said:
I told a lady at the Buick display that I expected to see a majority of EVs if I'm still around in ten more years. She was skeptical. So it goes.
Are you talking about the # of models are in terms of new cars sales, as in 50+% of new light vehicle sales in the US will be EVs (or EVs + PHEVs)?
 
Are you talking about the # of models are in terms of new cars sales, as in 50+% of new light vehicle sales in the US will be EVs (or EVs + PHEVs)?

Yes, I expect in 10 years most models of car will be BEV or BEV with a range extender, and that will result in a majority of cars sold being electric. We all know it is more pleasant to drive an EV as well as being less harmful to the environment.

Currently existing gas stations will eventually replace fuel pump islands with fast charge islands. Signs will list the price per kWh instead of a gallon of planet poison.
 
cwerdna said:
As for Toyota's FCEV, the Mirai... yeah. Looks rather ugly. :( I'm not a fan of FCEVs either.
Agree on its looks. What IS the purpose of that huge front black area? Air intake for cooling or what?

LA-Auto-Show-2014-106.jpg


StevesWeb wrote:
> I expect in 10 years most models of car will be BEV or BEV with a range extender, and that will result in a majority of cars sold being electric.

I wish you were right, Steve, but I have my doubts, too. Way too many people fail to comprehend the problems of burning hydrocarbons, and way too many people are afraid of change. I think it will take much longer.
 
SteveC5088 said:
cwerdna said:
As for Toyota's FCEV, the Mirai... yeah. Looks rather ugly. :( I'm not a fan of FCEVs either.
Agree on its looks. What IS the purpose of that huge front black area? Air intake for cooling or what?
Cooling and air intake. A PEM fuel cell operates at a fairly low temp, and you need larger cooling surfaces to get rid of lower temp air than higher temp air, plus you've got to cool all the electronics which are under the hood. And then you need lots of air intake for the O2 for the fuel cell. Nevertheless, Toyota didn't have to make the car so fugly, as Honda showed with their concept. I've seen the Mirai's looks described as polarizing, but I'd say the effect on sales/leasing, which are bound to be slow initially in any case, will be like tying a boat anchor to the rear bumper. It's far worse than the original Prius, which was merely meek-looking like its Echo sibling rather than downright weird. In fact, the Mirai reminds me of some of the oddly-proportioned Japanese cars from the '60s.
 
StevesWeb said:
Are you talking about the # of models are in terms of new cars sales, as in 50+% of new light vehicle sales in the US will be EVs (or EVs + PHEVs)?

Yes, I expect in 10 years most models of car will be BEV or BEV with a range extender, and that will result in a majority of cars sold being electric. We all know it is more pleasant to drive an EV as well as being less harmful to the environment.
Ack! I can't believe I made a typo, making my question confusing. :oops:

I meant to ask "Are you talking about the # of models OR in terms of new cars sales, as in 50+% of new light vehicle sales in the US will be EVs (or EVs + PHEVs)?"

Are you predicting that in 10 years that EVs and PHEV cars will make up 50+% of car unit sales? How about "light trucks"? That category includes SUVs, minivans, a few vans, pickups and some vehicles that don't look much like SUVs (e.g. many Subarus, the Chrysler PT Cruiser).
 
I was at the SF Auto Show on Wednesday and at least the Leaf wasn't hidden away. They had 3 of them clearly visible in the booth. I will probably start a new thread about EVs at the SF Auto Show.

IIRC, Mitsubishi wasn't at the show at all, so no i-Miev.
 
cwerdna said:
Are you talking about the # of models are in terms of new cars sales, as in 50+% of new light vehicle sales in the US will be EVs (or EVs + PHEVs)?

Yes, I expect at least 50% of new car sales will be BEVs in ten years. I hope it is a very conservative estimate.
 
StevesWeb said:
cwerdna said:
Are you talking about the # of models are in terms of new cars sales, as in 50+% of new light vehicle sales in the US will be EVs (or EVs + PHEVs)?

Yes, I expect at least 50% of new car sales will be BEVs in ten years. I hope it is a very conservative estimate.
Crazy... I highly doubt it, unfortunately. :( I think we'd be lucky to hit 25% of new cars (so "light trucks" are excluded) sold in the US being BEVs 10 years from now.

Just take a look at hybrid take rate (been on sale in the US since ~December 1999) + take rates for PHEVs and BEVs at http://www.hybridcars.com/october-2014-dashboard/. Also look at http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2014/11/usa-vehicle-sales-rankings-by-model-october-2014-ytd.html and http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2014/11/usa-all-cars-ranked-by-october-2014-ytd-sales-figures.html. Remember, hybrids require no habit changes on the part of the driver nor charging stations/new infrastructure (no, 120 volt charging only doesn't cut it for many folks.)

I think even PHEVs + BEVs combined = 50+% of new cars sold in the US in 10 years is optimistic.

You should try convincing your relatives, friends, coworkers and acquaintances, esp. those in other states where EVs/PHEVs aren't strong and see how many actually follow through w/leasing or buying one. You'd probably be floored by how many excuses, misinformation, myths, etc. will come back. I've been a hybrid enthusiast and driver since January 06 and I've heard it all. Much of the same crap and misinformation ends up being carried over to EVs and PHEVs. :(

And then, there would be many entrenched interests (e.g. oil rich countries, oil companies and their related support companies (e.g. refiners, oil drilling and exploration), politicians in oil rich states, etc.) who will fight in any way they can, complete with media manipulation and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing to spread FUD.

IMHO, it would take some prolonged major oil crisis accompanied by rationing, shortages and much higher gas prices (e.g. 70s oil crisis but for much longer) for your expectation to come true.

Hope we can both revisit this in 10 years to see who was right or closer to it.
 
cwerdna said:
StevesWeb said:
cwerdna said:
Hope we can both revisit this in 10 years to see who was right or closer to it.

That would be nice. I think climate change is going to become a driving force behind EV sales. Yes, I am being optimistic, but my optimism is inspired by my worries about the harm we are doing to our own home planet.
 
StevesWeb said:
That would be nice. I think climate change is going to become a driving force behind EV sales. Yes, I am being optimistic, but my optimism is inspired by my worries about the harm we are doing to our own home planet.
I wish that were the case. :( Unfortunately, I think you'll find that the overwhelming majority of vehicle buyers, esp. outside coastal states don't care. :( Or, they care somewhat but aren't taking the proper steps (see below).

And, there are too many doubters of AGW. If you have some time and don't know much about the Heartland Institute, watch http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/climate-of-doubt/ sometime about how organized they are. I didn't know much about them until I watched that Frontline ep.

I don't think even 50% of auto buyers get that burning each gallon of gasoline produces ~20 pounds of CO2 (http://web.archive.org/web/20120427232705/http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/co2.shtml) and the only way around it is to burn less of it, burn something w/less carbon or use something else that produces less or no CO2. And, I don't think people get that a single ICEV driven say 15K miles a year produces several to many tons of GHGs/year (examples at http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=35556&id=25776&id=35014&id=21950). A non-plugin Prius (the most efficient non-plugin mass-market highway legal car sold as new in the US) driven 15K miles/year, getting EPA combined mileage would produce 2.9 tons of tailpipe CO2 emissions + 0.7 tons upstream. An 09 4WD Tahoe w/bigger engine would produce 10.5 tons + 2.4 tons, respectively.

A few years ago, on TiVocommunity, there was one battering ram of death SUV driver (full-sized ala Tahoe) who dismissed some of my arguments since said he SUV was "low emission" and that most cars are "low emission". He didn't know about/understand the above and didn't understand that "low emission" was referring to "air pollutants" and NOT greenhouse gas emissions, of which his BRoD SUV was a horrible emitter of, due to its horrible mileage.

From bottom of http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/findacarhelp.shtml#carbonFootprint
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions?

The smog and greenhouse gas ratings measure different types of vehicle emissions. Air pollutants harm human health and/or cause smog. Greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2) contribute to climate change.
I recently briefly mentioned to a coworker that CO2 emission levels from a vehicle and gas mileage have no relationship to these harmful pollutant measures (e.g. CO, NOx, particulate matter, etc.) He had no idea.

I suspect labeling and naming on vehicle labels (e.g. LEV (Low Emission Vehicle), ULEV, etc.) further confuses the subject.
 
Those of us who do know these things have a responsibility IMHO to try to communicate these concerns to others.

cwerdna said:
StevesWeb said:
A non-plugin Prius (the most efficient non-plugin mass-market highway legal car sold as new in the US) driven 15K miles/year, getting EPA combined mileage would produce 2.9 tons of tailpipe CO2 emissions + 0.7 tons upstream.

That was me before my EV, we own two Prius. I felt guilty every time I got in my car. Now at least I can go for a drive without feeling like a criminal.
 
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