How will new battery change in 8 years??

[evboy]

I have a question that hasnt been discussed here before. The 2014 battery weighs about 600 pounds. the weight of that battery is part of the integrity of the car and effects all its functions like stability to not rollover in turns and weight ratio of close to 50/50 front to back. in 8 years a 82 mile pack should weigh considerably less. also,they could replace it with a 200 mile battery for real cheap in 8 years but it wont weigh the same as todays 82 mile pack. how will they replace my battery in 8 years(other than a exact original) and keep the integrity of the car the same. wont the replacement battery have to weigh the same and the pounds spread on the floor of the car the same as it is now to keep all specs the same. also, will they put 8 year old technology in my car when it will be obsolete.

 

[SparkevBlogspot]

They'll probably replace the battery with original they have laying around. If they happen to run out of them, they could conceivably replace with 2015+ battery that's with LG cells. I'm not 100% certain, but they could be the same cells as used in Volt, so they're more likely to be available. 2015+ is lighter by about 100 lb, but it won't significantly affect the car.

After 10 years (2024), they don't have to stock replacement parts, so you'll be on your own. I don't expect anything beyond 8 years warranty period. If it goes beyond that, it's just gravy. I ran the analysis in my very first blog post based on how useless Prius became after the battery died.

 

[SparkE]

I'll answer your question right after somebody answers my question (and that I am positive the answer is correct) :

Who will be president of the United States eight years from now?

 

[EldRitch]

Chances are that the car will be viewed as totally obsolete in eight years, and that it won't make any economic sense to replace the battery pack.

 

[CCIE]

Agreed, while I really like my Spark EV, it's already been obsoleted by the Bolt. In 8-10 years our 100-mile BEVs will be worth $1000 max. So, replacing a battery outside of warranty will never make sense.

As for in-warranty replacements, GM would probably just replace bad cell-packs within the battery pack. Replacing the whole battery pack would be unusual. But, I'm sure they have some in a warehouse that will sit around for 10 years just in case.

 

[evboy]

Agreed, while I really like my Spark EV, it's already been obsoleted by the Bolt. In 8-10 years our 100-mile BEVs will be worth $1000 max. So, replacing a battery outside of warranty will never make sense.

As for in-warranty replacements, GM would probably just replace bad cell-packs within the battery pack. Replacing the whole battery pack would be unusual. But, I'm sure they have some in a warehouse that will sit around for 10 years just in case.

if u can get a brand new original put in for 1500 how is that obsolete. the cost of the original should collapse in price 8 years from now if they dont upgrade it. what am i missing. if i can use it another 8 years for 1500 than its a steal even if they have 500 mile batteries at that time.
also do you think our battery pack will go bad no matter how little miles we put on them for 10 years from aging alone.

 

[evboy]

I'll answer your question right after somebody answers my question (and that I am positive the answer is correct) :

Who will be president of the United States eight years from now?

hillary clinton. she will run for president until she is dead.of course she will lose everytime

 

[SparkevBlogspot]

if u can get a brand new original put in for 1500 how is that obsolete.

It's unlikely the battery will be $1500. Just the cells are projected to cost $100/kWh (roughly raw material cost), so 18.4 kWh or 20.5 kWh will cost close to $2000. SparkEV pack is lot more complex than just cells with controls and TMS and coolant loops and so on. Pack could cost far more, maybe $5K. As an example, Prius battery is simply 1.5 kWh of cells without cooling, and that's $2300 (or $3500 without core).

There's also the labor. Again going with Prius example, they charge close to $1000 to simply remove few screws to replace the pack that weigh only about 100 lb. SparkEV will require far more extensive surgery with 500 lb battery. If I had to guess, it could be $2000.

Any way you cut it, replacement battery could easily cost over $5K, more like $7K. 10 year old cars sell for about $4K, so replacing the battery on SparkEV (or almost any EV or hybrid beyond warranty) really doesn't make sense. Of course, if you happen to come across used battery for cheap and you do the work yourself, that's different. But that's not for everyone.

Hopefully in 8 years, there will be lot more EV offering and lease deals like SparkEV. As I wrote in my blog, SparkEV lease is actually cheaper than a used car.

 

[CCIE]

I could see a 3rd party coming out with rebuilt battery packs for the Volt. Maybe even with higher capacity. But, the Spark EV was made in such small quantities that I doubt it will make sense for any boutique shop to bother with rebuilt batteries for it.

So, once the mandatory 10 year support period ends for GM, we'll just be left with whatever used batteries are around. I'd be amazed if more than a handful of Spark EVs are still on the road in 15 years.

 

[evboy]

if u can get a brand new original put in for 1500 how is that obsolete.

It's unlikely the battery will be $1500. Just the cells are projected to cost $100/kWh (roughly raw material cost), so 18.4 kWh or 20.5 kWh will cost close to $2000. SparkEV pack is lot more complex than just cells with controls and TMS and coolant loops and so on. Pack could cost far more, maybe $5K. As an example, Prius battery is simply 1.5 kWh of cells without cooling, and that's $2300 (or $3500 without core).

There's also the labor. Again going with Prius example, they charge close to $1000 to simply remove few screws to replace the pack that weigh only about 100 lb. SparkEV will require far more extensive surgery with 500 lb battery. If I had to guess, it could be $2000.

Any way you cut it, replacement battery could easily cost over $5K, more like $7K. 10 year old cars sell for about $4K, so replacing the battery on SparkEV (or almost any EV or hybrid beyond warranty) really doesn't make sense. Of course, if you happen to come across used battery for cheap and you do the work yourself, that's different. But that's not for everyone.

Hopefully in 8 years, there will be lot more EV offering and lease deals like SparkEV. As I wrote in my blog, SparkEV lease is actually cheaper than a used car.

lets say its 5k to replace. if i can get a 200 mile replacement for that, now i have a car that can go another 10 years for 5k. thats not a bad deal. the question is will i be able to buy a bolt in 10 years for 5k.

 

[EldRitch]

I'll tell you what - how about you come back in eight years and let us know what happened?

 

[evboy]

I'll tell you what - how about you come back in eight years and let us know what happened?

Deal!

 

[SparkE]

I'll tell you what - how about you come back in eight years and let us know what happened?

Bring Hillary with you!

 

[SparkevBlogspot]

lets say its 5k to replace. if i can get a 200 mile replacement

SparkEV would need about 50 kWh battery of almost no additional mass to get 200 miles. At $100/kWh cell price, that's already $5K, probably at least $7K for pack. Install may cost $2K, so you're looking at close to $10K for 200 miles range if such cells are available. I doubt any would do that unless SparkEV is a collector's car. But if it's collector's car, they'd want the original battery.

As for Shilery in 8 years, gawd I hope no other women like her run for office. Her whole schtick toward the end was "I'm flawed and awful, but vote for me because I'm a woman". I heard such complaint from several woman who didn't vote for her (but not Dump, fortunately).

 

[67goat]

lets say its 5k to replace. if i can get a 200 mile replacement

SparkEV would need about 50 kWh battery of almost no additional mass to get 200 miles. At $100/kWh cell price, that's already $5K, probably at least $7K for pack. Install may cost $2K, so you're looking at close to $10K for 200 miles range if such cells are available. I doubt any would do that unless SparkEV is a collector's car. But if it's collector's car, they'd want the original battery.

As for Shilery in 8 years, gawd I hope no other women like her run for office. Her whole schtick toward the end was "I'm flawed and awful, but vote for me because I'm a woman". I heard such complaint from several woman who didn't vote for her (but not Dump, fortunately).

People likely wouldn't do it for resale purposes, but value encompasses much more than simple resale. Unless you expect to be able to buy a new 200 mile range EV for 10k in eight years it would still be a good deal. The motor will still have hundreds of thousands of miles left on it. Unless there are other issues with the car, 10k to get another 100-150k miles is pretty cheap any way you cut it.

People make this same mistake all the time with ICE vehicles. If you have a car that is otherwise in good condition, a replacement that is more than the value of the car is still worth doing if you plan on continuing to drive the car. Spending 5k to get another 10 years out of a car is cheaper than spending 20-30k on a new car. Now, if the car is in a state where there will be cascading failures, then the total of the repairs may very well suggest buying a new (or slightly used) vehicle.

 

[SparkevBlogspot]

Based on general EV pricing, 8 year old Bolt with degraded battery that can only muster about 175 miles will sell for much less than $10K, more like $5K, maybe even less. Then does it make sense to replace the battery on SparkEV for close to $10K to get 200 miles range? That is assuming such battery is available, which isn't likely.

There will be few hard-core fans who may wish to spend the time and money, but most will simply junk dead battery SparkEV and get a used Bolt or something like it for less than the cost of SparkEV replacement battery. Indeed, this is why I'm driving SparkEV instead of replacing the battery on the Prius.

I hope for the best for SparkEV, but I have no expectations beyond the warranty period. Unlike gas cars that can hobble along with small bits and pieces fixes for 200K+ miles, battery is a major cost like engine/transmission replacement. Most compact cars are junked when such problem is encountered.

 

[evboy]

Based on general EV pricing, 8 year old Bolt with degraded battery that can only muster about 175 miles will sell for much less than $10K, more like $5K, maybe even less. Then does it make sense to replace the battery on SparkEV for close to $10K to get 200 miles range? That is assuming such battery is available, which isn't likely.

There will be few hard-core fans who may wish to spend the time and money, but most will simply junk dead battery SparkEV and get a used Bolt or something like it for less than the cost of SparkEV replacement battery. Indeed, this is why I'm driving SparkEV instead of replacing the battery on the Prius.

I hope for the best for SparkEV, but I have no expectations beyond the warranty period. Unlike gas cars that can hobble along with small bits and pieces fixes for 200K+ miles, battery is a major cost like engine/transmission replacement. Most compact cars are junked when such problem is encountered.

is it possible that a 21kw battery will get 200 miles in 8 years

 

[NORTON]

Watts is watts.

It's a measure of power.

If the car being powered by this 21kWh battery was suddenly turned into a 700 lbs and aero car, then maybe !

It's like saying "will my 10 gal. gas tank propel this car 1000 miles some day"? Yes, if you turn it into a lightweight streamliner.

 

[scrambler]

is it possible that a 21kw battery will get 200 miles in 8 years

Highly unlikely.

The reason being that the battery capacity represent the energy it can deliver.
If that does not change, In order for the same amount of energy to enable more range, you would need to improve the efficiency of the process that transform that energy into motion.

An electric motor is already above 90% (sometimes 98%) efficient, so only little could be gained there.
Next is the car weight, that can also improve some with new material, but you cant go too light either, as the weight is part of the stability of the vehicle.
Next is drag and friction, here too, you can gain a little in aerodynamics and tire technology, but also a small % of the overall efficiency.

So as far as moving a car with wheels and an electric motor, there is no way to make that process 250% more efficient to provide such a range increase with the same amount of energy.

 

[evboy]

is it possible that a 21kw battery will get 200 miles in 8 years

Highly unlikely.

The reason being that the battery capacity represent the energy it can deliver.
If that does not change, In order for the same amount of energy to enable more range, you would need to improve the efficiency of the process that transform that energy into motion.

An electric motor is already above 90% (sometimes 98%) efficient, so only little could be gained there.
Next is the car weight, that can also improve some with new material, but you cant go too light either, as the weight is part of the stability of the vehicle.
Next is drag and friction, here too, you can gain a little in aerodynamics and tire technology, but also a small % of the overall efficiency.

So as far as moving a car with wheels and an electric motor, there is no way to make that process 250% more efficient to provide such a range increase with the same amount of energy.

i was confused. thanks for clarification. so the reason the bolt is a big deal is not that it can go 200 miles, its that it can go 200 miles at 37,500.00. before, that battery might have cost double so it couldnt be made for a mass market.

one other thing i forgot. tesla will be selling 500,000 model 3 cars a year in about 3 years. by the time 2022 comes around they could sell over a million a year. that means by 2022 there will be a glut of used electric cars to choose from and they will depreciate alot, since the supply will be so large compared to the supply of used teslas now. i would need the price to get down to 50 dollars a kwh to make it worth it replacing my battery. 1000 for the pack and 500 for labor and i would probably do it. it would be worth it then.

also, what are the odds that its a collector car. most people never heard of the thing. everyone i told about spark ev says whats that?