What's gonna happen with all the lease returns in 3 years?

[Sesamecrunch]

I read recently that 97% of all electric cars are leased. I'm sure for the same reasons I leased mine (first ever lease for me) - uncertainty about battery life, technology obsolescence, good financials deals, etc.

So what's the likely scenario two or three years from now? Is there going to a glut of this generation EV car returns? Are we going to see low lease buyouts? Are these EV's going to be completely outdated by newer, lower cost technology?

Who's got the crystal ball on this?

 

[Chocula]

For most people, the current incentives make leasing a very attractive option, which is why the vast majority (excluding Tesla) are leases.

I heard that Honda offered unlimited miles on there Fit EV which is lease only, and they fully intend to discontinue the line. This says to me, they will be dissected then crushed at the end of their lease.

You can look at the Nissan Leaf which has been out for enough time that leases are returning. I see them available used for $13k - $18k, and considered this when purchasing (not leasing) my Spark. After market battery rebuilds are available for the leaf as well add on packs that double the battery size (capacity, weight, and space). Once the government incentives dry up, the uses ones will probably have no trouble selling.

I think the trend towards leasing give the manufactures a cost effective way to get the CARB credits and not have to support as many aging battery packs. I would not be surprised to start seeing "factory certified" used cars with reconditioned battery packs.

The other trend is leasing of the battery such as Smart offers. I personally don't like the pay a little forever sales model, but it does offer allot of security to the leaser, as long as you can live with having no battery at all when the 8 year support ends as I don't think you get the keep the battery in the end. I think aftermarket batteries are available in Europe for the Smart, so likely will be available in the US after a few more years.

 

[VonSpark]

I have lease a car once before but it wasn't for new technology as BEV. There are only 3 scenario for any leases. So what's the likely scenario two or three years from now?

You can:

1. Return the vehicle.

2. Buy the car that you currently leasing (check your residual value on your contract)

3. Lease a different vehicle.


Is there going to a glut of this generation EV car returns? IMO, yes and no, mostly a lot will be return.

Are we going to see low lease buyouts? IMO, no

Are these EV's going to be completely outdated by newer, lower cost technology? IMO, yes and most likely.

IMO, assuming 2 to 3 years you have to decide stated above (return, buy or lease new car). For example, my end of lease for my Spark to buy is around $14,500. I can buy it or I can return it and lease a new improved BEV Spark. Keep in mind that assuming that the State rebate is no longer available ,so as, Fed tax credit. Let assume in 3 years that Spark is $29K (Technology improve the Spark have a range of 150 miles). The questions is are you going to buy or lease the new Spark for $29K without the 10K incentive? Your Spark today range 80-90 miles and we are paying low $200 on a lease or buy with incentive $19k?

The reason why I lease is because I only needed for short term until the range is improve more then 100 miles. I want to own my BEV some day and whoever has the best deal in low $30k range that can provide me 150 mile range or more.

This is my humble opinion.

 

[TonyWilliams]

It depends if your contract is:

Open-end lease (it will state a residual value that you can purchase the car for at the end of the lease)

Closed-end lease (you must return the car at lease end).

All the current (and most likely every future hydrogen car) is a closed-end lease. They will be crushed at the end.

The Honda Fit EV is a closed end lease.

The original Toyota Rav4 EV (first generation, 1997-2003) was a closed-end lease until some dealers mistakenly sold some with open-end contracts. That's why they weren't all crushed.

Obviously, and quite famously, all the GM EV-1's were closed-end and crushed.

 

[GeorgeChevy]

An open end lease means that the lessee is responsible for the residual value at the end of the lease (meaning the lessee is responsible for paying the difference if the actual residual value is less than the contracted one) and a closed end lease means that the lessor is responsible for the residual at the end of the lease (which is common for most leases now except for exotics). It has nothing to do with with whether or not you can buy the vehicle at the end of the lease-that is another condition on the contract.

http://www.leaseguide.com/lease06.htm

 

[SteveC5088]

I read recently that 97% of all electric cars are leased. I'm sure for the same reasons I leased mine (first ever lease for me) - uncertainty about battery life, technology obsolescence, good financials deals, etc.

So what's the likely scenario two or three years from now? Is there going to a glut of this generation EV car returns? Are we going to see low lease buyouts? Are these EV's going to be completely outdated by newer, lower cost technology?

Who's got the crystal ball on this?

No crystal ball, but if the price is right, people will buy them. Where I live (San Joaquin Valley), I got 13k in rebates, so my 2014 cost me $17k. I may be one of that 3%, but the range is enough for my needs, so I'll be keeping this car probably 10 years at least.

And as for "all electric cars", at least around here, there just aren't many rolling off the lots, so there won't be a glut of lease returns coming in, either.

I've never leased a car, and just cannot stomach the idea of giving away all that cash and having nothing to show for it in 3 years. If I weren't happy with the current battery technology, I wouldn't have bought one of these cars.

 

[Oberon]

Normally we keep cars until they get too funky or will need a lot of work to keep going. Our most recent Honda Accord we had for 20 years. Our Spark EV is our first ever lease.

We leased because no-one in our extended family has had an "American" car for 40 years due to various egregiously bad GM, Ford and Jeep products in the past, except my late father in-law . His Buick was a running joke, or more likely a not-running joke. Considering a Chevy, and then finding myself on a Chevy dealer lot, was a surreal experience, not something I had ever imagined doing. Even though the Spark looked like a great car there was no way we wanted to get stuck with another turkey. With the lease, at least if it turns out badly we can hand it back right away.

So far so good, we love our Spark, but it does have some rough edges design wise especially around the dash and controls. Example, heated seats are great, but why is the button way down on the tunnel out of reach under the dash?

The other thing was that with all the incentives and the fuel and maintenance cost saving our Spark is only $45 more per month compared to keeping our Accord as the second car and driving our Fit. And if the Accord need any repairs (probable after 20 years of benign neglect) the Spark is even cheaper.

Bottom line, we are driving a great city car with bleeding edge technology and impeccable green credentials at no risk and almost no expense. How much better can it get?

 

[cwerdna]

I read recently that 97% of all electric cars are leased.

Source? That sounds doubtful and too high.

I'm sure the percentage is very high, just not that high. (FWIW, I'm leasing my '13 Leaf.)

 

[Chocula]

... Where I live (San Joaquin Valley), I got 13k in rebates, ...

What are the rebates that got you to 13K? The $7500 tax credit, the $2500 California rebate, $500 towards a Bosch EVSE, and a 30% tax credit on EVSE install costs are all that I am aware of. What else am I missing?

 

[nozferatu]

... Where I live (San Joaquin Valley), I got 13k in rebates, ...

What are the rebates that got you to 13K? The $7500 tax credit, the $2500 California rebate, $500 towards a Bosch EVSE, and a 30% tax credit on EVSE install costs are all that I am aware of. What else am I missing?

Great bargaining skills... :lol:

 

[SteveC5088]

... Where I live (San Joaquin Valley), I got 13k in rebates, ...

What are the rebates that got you to 13K? The $7500 tax credit, the $2500 California rebate, $500 towards a Bosch EVSE, and a 30% tax credit on EVSE install costs are all that I am aware of. What else am I missing?

I didn't know about any stinkin Bosch rebate... Oh, it's a tax credit ... yes, I claimed $3K for my second meter installation last year, so that saved me about $1k.

But the San Joaquin Valley is the ticket. Reward for living in one of the dirtiest air basins in the country, I guess. The SJVAPCD Drive Clean! Rebate Program sent me a $3k check. On that web page, click on the Eligible Vehicle List to get a PDF file showing the Spark is one of three that gets the full $3k.

 

[gra]

... Where I live (San Joaquin Valley), I got 13k in rebates, ...

What are the rebates that got you to 13K? The $7500 tax credit, the $2500 California rebate, $500 towards a Bosch EVSE, and a 30% tax credit on EVSE install costs are all that I am aware of. What else am I missing?

I didn't know about any stinkin Bosch rebate... Oh, it's a tax credit ... yes, I claimed $3K for my second meter installation last year, so that saved me about $1k.

But the San Joaquin Valley is the ticket. Reward for living in one of the dirtiest air basins in the country, I guess. The SJVAPCD Drive Clean! Rebate Program sent me a $3k check. On that web page, click on the Eligible Vehicle List to get a PDF file showing the Spark is one of three that gets the full $3k.

_All_ BEVs get the full $3k.

 

[SteveC5088]

_All_ BEVs get the full $3k.

You're right. I was only seeing the first of five pages!

 

[TonyWilliams]

I read recently that 97% of all electric cars are leased.

Since none of the 30,000 Tesla cars sold in the USA were leased, obviously this percentage is WAY off.

The only EV car that sells more than Tesla is the Nissan LEAF, and I can bet that it's no where near 97% even for that car alone.

If every GM Spark EV were leased instead of purchased, it would barely nudge the overall percentage even a single digit. There just aren't enough to be a factor.

 

[fr100]

Anyone approaching the end of their lease get a buyout offer?